What to expect in the upcoming Budget

Syndicate Room

September 7, 2026

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9 min read

On Wednesday 28 October 2026, Chancellor John Healey will deliver his first Budget, alongside an updated economic and fiscal forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility. It's also the first Budget of Andy Burnham's premiership, and the first real test of what a government that has explicitly promised to "move money and power out of Westminster, and into every postcode around Britain" actually does with the tax system when it has to write the numbers down.

For investors thinking about an EIS or SEIS allocation this tax year, that date matters more than the usual pre-Budget noise. For anyone planning to claim the tax reliefs available through those schemes, you might want to act sooner rather than later, and take advantage of available tax relief in its current form, before any changes or reductions are made.

What is and isn't on the table

Labour's 2024 manifesto committed the party to not raising the rates of income tax, employee National Insurance or VAT for the rest of this Parliament, and advisers tracking the Budget consistently report that commitment is expected to hold. That's a real constraint, and seems solid. But a government facing a fiscal gap that analysts have put at upwards of £22 billion, while ruling out the three biggest revenue levers in the tax system, has to find the money somewhere else.

Where "somewhere else" points is not a mystery. Andy Burnham has previously argued that the UK's tax system leans more heavily on income from work than on income from wealth, a position several advisory firms reading the runes ahead of the Budget interpret as a signal toward reviewing capital gains tax, inheritance tax reliefs and property taxation rather than the headline rates most people watch. Burnham has personally declined to rule out tax rises when asked directly, telling reporters during a visit to Ukraine that "whatever I do will be carefully thought through" and that it "will be funded."

The specific ideas already circulating publicly, all attributed to advisers, journalists and Westminster sources rather than confirmed government policy, include: equalising capital gains tax rates with income tax bands, an idea some Labour figures have themselves called a "wealth tax that works"; a possible review of the inheritance tax reliefs for agricultural and business property that were tightened last year; a mooted overhaul of stamp duty and council tax into a land value tax charged at roughly 1.3% annually; and bank taxation, which one commentary described as a comparatively "low-hanging" target given the government's more left-leaning positioning under Burnham than under his predecessor. 

None of this is confirmed. All of it is speculation. But the shape of the speculation is consistent across multiple independent outlets, and it points in the same direction every time: assets and accumulated wealth, not wages.

The pattern of recent Budgets

In the Autumn Budget on 30 October 2024, Rachel Reeves capped Business Property Relief and Agricultural Property Relief at £1 million combined per individual, with only 50% relief available above that threshold, and separately announced that AIM-listed shares would lose their 100% BPR treatment entirely and drop to a flat 50% regardless of value. 

Both changes were set to take effect from 6 April 2026. After lobbying from farming and business groups, the government revisited the cap on 23 December 2025, raising the 100% threshold from £1 million to £2.5 million — a concession, but one that left the underlying mechanism, and the AIM cut, fully intact.

The second move came over a year later, in the Autumn Budget on 26 November 2025. In that Budget, Reeves cut Venture Capital Trust income tax relief from 30% to 20% while simultaneously widening EIS and VCT company-level investment limits, doubling annual and lifetime caps for standard companies and knowledge-intensive companies alike.

The £200,000 annual VCT subscription limit is unchanged, so the maximum income tax relief an investor can claim in a year falls from £60,000 to £40,000.

EIS and SEIS were mostly left alone in both Budgets. Their 100% Business Property Relief after a two-year holding period survived both rounds mostly intact, currently the most significant IHT relief left standing in the UK tax code, although it's now subject to a £2.5 million cap. That's a genuinely important fact, and it's the reason EIS and SEIS have become more, not less, central to estate planning conversations over the past year. But two Budgets in a row narrowing adjacent reliefs is not the same claim as "immune to a third," and a government now explicitly signalling it wants to tax wealth rather than earnings is, by definition, looking at exactly the category EIS and SEIS reliefs sit inside.

What's locked in, separate from what the Budget might add

Already confirmed, unrelated to the October Budget: from 6 April 2027, the cash ISA allowance for under-65s falls from £20,000 to £12,000, transfers from stocks-and-shares ISAs into cash ISAs are being restricted, and uninvested cash sitting inside a stocks-and-shares ISA will be taxed at 22%, with investors also barred from holding their full ISA position in 100% money-market funds to work around it. Separately, from April 2027, unused pension funds will fall within the taxable estate for beneficiaries other than a spouse or civil partner — a change that predates Healey's appointment and is not something advisers expect this Budget to reverse.

Not yet confirmed, genuinely speculative, but consistently flagged across multiple independent sources as live possibilities for 28 October: CGT rate changes, inheritance tax relief reviews, property tax reform, and additional levies on banks or high-value assets. Treasury officials have said little publicly and have reportedly worked to limit pre-Budget briefing specifically to avoid the kind of speculation-driven investment freeze that marked the run-up to previous Budgets. That restraint cuts both ways: it means less noise to sift through, but it also means less warning before 28 October than investors had ahead of some previous fiscal events.

The window, precisely

The Budget is on 28 October 2026, just under eight weeks away. While any changes made to EIS and SEIS may not take effect immediately, it is possible.

For anyone considering an investment in EIS or SEIS, it might be prudent to invest sooner rather than later, and aim to receive your shares before any changes to tax reliefs in these schemes are carried out in the Budget.

Where to invest?

We have several EIS and SEIS funds that are currently open, meaning you can start your investment today if you choose, and get deployment of your funds underway as soon as possible. You can find out more about the funds we operate below.

Sources

1. PwC UK, "Autumn Budget 2026" — https://www.pwc.co.uk/budget.html

2. Ross Martin, "Date announced for 2026 Budget" — https://www.rossmartin.co.uk/sme-tax-news/9053-date-announced-for-budget-2026

3. Grant Thornton, "Autumn Budget 2026: what we know so far" — https://www.grantthornton.co.uk/insights/autumn-budget/

4. The Dirt, "Autumn Budget 2026: John Healey confirms 28 October date," citing City AM's fiscal-gap estimate — https://thedirt.news/autumn-budget-2026-28-october-date/

5. DIY Investor, "Autumn Budget 2026: When is the Budget and what can investors expect?" — https://www.diyinvestor.net/autumn-budget-2026-when-is-the-budget-and-what-can-investors-expect/

6. IFA Magazine, "Autumn Budget 2026: Banks may be softest targets as Burnham refuses to rule out tax rises" — https://ifamagazine.com/autumn-budget-2026-banks-may-be-softest-targets-as-burnham-refuses-to-rule-out-tax-rises/

7. City AM, "Budget 2026: Which taxes will Burnham and Healey hike?" — https://www.cityam.com/budget-2026-which-taxes-will-burnham-and-healey-hike/

8. S&W Group, "What will be in the Autumn Budget 2026?" — https://www.swgroup.com/insights-events/insights/budget-predictions-and-speculation/

9. City AM, "Budget 2026: Which taxes will Burnham and Healey hike?" (land value tax) — https://www.cityam.com/budget-2026-which-taxes-will-burnham-and-healey-hike/

10. IFA Magazine, as above

11. DIY Investor, as above (ISA and pension changes from April 2027)

12. Autumn Budget 2024 policy documents, 30 October 2024 — original £1m Business Property Relief/Agricultural Property Relief cap and AIM shares reduced to 50% relief, both effective 6 April 2026. See GOV.UK, "Changes to agricultural property relief and business property relief" — https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-agricultural-property-relief-and-business-property-relief; and Farrer & Co, "Autumn Budget 2024: a degree of clarity" — https://www.farrer.co.uk/news-and-insights/autumn-budget-2024-a-degree-of-clarity/

13. GOV.UK press release, 23 December 2025, "Inheritance tax reliefs threshold to rise to £2.5m for farmers and businesses" — https://www.gov.uk/government/news/inheritance-tax-reliefs-threshold-to-rise-to-25m-for-farmers-and-businesses

14. Autumn Budget 2025, 26 November 2025 — VCT income tax relief cut from 30% to 20%, EIS/VCT company investment limits doubled, both effective 6 April 2026. See GOV.UK, "Venture Capital Trusts, Enterprise Investment Scheme investment limit increase and restructure" — https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/enterprise-investment-scheme-eis-and-venture-capital-trusts-vct-changes/venture-capital-trusts-enterprise-investment-scheme-investment-limit-increase-and-restructure; and Lexology, "Autumn Budget 2025: Personal Taxes" — https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=1294671c-c483-432d-a95a-27f9748c5eef