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Based on a comprehensive analysis of the UK venture capital market, the Access EIS Fund offers a strategy grounded in quantitative data rather than traditional intuition. It employs a unique model which harnesses this data analysis through co-investment with leading UK angel investors and builds investors large portfolios of high-potential startups.
We’ve gone into detail about our analysis, and the justifications for our model in our white paper, which you can read in full here.
To summarise our research, which examined over 5,300 companies and 300,000 investor records, here are three compelling, data-backed arguments for this modern approach to early stage investing.
1. A larger portfolio for more consistent returns
Venture capital returns are famously skewed. A tiny number of companies generate most of the profits, while the majority fail or provide a minimal return. This is known as a power law distribution. The research demonstrates that the conventional approach of building a concentrated portfolio of eight to ten "high conviction" investments is a high risk strategy that often fails to capture the rare breakout successes.
The data shows a better way. Through one million Monte Carlo simulations, the analysis found that building larger, more diversified portfolios of 30 or more companies significantly improves the probability of achieving consistent returns. While this may slightly reduce the chance of a single astronomical outcome, it substantially increases the likelihood of a strong overall portfolio performance.
This strategy is powerfully enhanced by the UK's Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS). The combination of 30% upfront income tax relief and 45% loss relief on unsuccessful investments fundamentally changes the mathematics of portfolio building. The tax reliefs cushion the downside, meaning a failed investment costs a higher rate taxpayer as little as 38.5p for every £1 invested. This asymmetric risk profile turns diversification from a potential penalty into a premium, making a larger portfolio not just viable but mathematically superior for delivering more reliable net returns. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may be subject to change.
2. Unlocking access to the best deals
The single most important factor in determining venture capital returns is not picking the winners, but getting the chance to invest in them in the first place. The research quantifies this, showing that access to quality deal flow is the dominant driver of success. A simulated portfolio with 90% access to the best investment opportunities delivered median returns eight times higher than a portfolio with only 10% access. This highlights a fundamental problem for most investors: the best deals happen in private networks and are hard to find.
The Access EIS Fund is built to solve this problem systematically. The research team analysed the performance of over 300,000 UK investors to identify an elite group of the most successful angel investors. This data revealed that just 0.06% of investors have a proven track record of achieving a portfolio return greater than five times their invested capital.
The fund’s core strategy is to co-invest directly alongside these top performing angels. By partnering with this select group, the fund gains systematic entry to high quality, vetted opportunities that would otherwise be inaccessible. This provides a data-driven solution to the critical challenge of deal flow access. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
3. Data-driven filters to sharpen selection
While gaining access through top angels is the primary strategy, the fund adds another layer of data-driven discipline to its investment process. The research identified key characteristics of companies that have historically gone on to deliver superior returns, allowing the fund to filter opportunities and further refine its portfolio.
The most powerful predictor of success was found to be funding momentum. The data is clear: startups that raise subsequent funding rounds relatively quickly, within 18 to 24 months of their last, have a much higher probability of success. The average returns decline sharply for companies that take longer to secure their next round. Furthermore, performance drops off significantly if a company has already had more than two previous funding rounds before a fund invests.
Based on this, the fund targets companies that are raising their first or second significant round of over £300,000, have had few previous funding rounds, and are doing so at a valuation between £2 million and £20 million. This disciplined, data-led selection process works in tandem with the access strategy to build a portfolio of companies that not only come from a high quality source but also exhibit the traits of future winners.
